西西's observation is that many people who get hurt early in the season get hurt lower down, not up high. The typical case: the board catches in the snow and the rider is twisted like a pretzel. 西西's explanation is that it is warmer lower down — that day, around 0 °C. The surface of each snow grain melts while the inside has not fully turned to water. That is wet snow, and the bonds between grains are weak. Put even slight pressure on the nose and it sinks straight into the surface. 西西's conclusion: there is almost no good answer to this snow. All you can do is grit your teeth and ride with a light touch. That is a risk warning, not a method that keeps you from getting hurt. Sapporo Kokusai had also closed the lower runs that day, so everyone had to carry their boards down on the gondola instead of riding down. **Key point**: early in the season, the most likely place to get hurt is lower down, where it is warmer and the snow is sticky. Pressing hard on the nose makes it sink in. ## Will this winter be short on snow? The first two items below are JMA data from August, as summarised by the school's Threads account. The last two are JMA's official outlooks from September and October, taken from JMA's [cold-season outlook](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpd/longfcst/kaisetsu/?term=P6M®ion=010100) and [three-month outlook](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpd/longfcst/kaisetsu/?term=P3M®ion=010100) pages (Sapporo Regional Headquarters). How this winter actually turns out is still UNKNOWN. - **10 August monitoring bulletin**: the El Niño event that began in spring 2026 is expected, with 100% probability, to continue into winter. In July, sea-surface temperature in the monitoring region was 2.5 °C above the reference value, tying 1997 as the highest July value since 1949. El Niño winters often weaken the winter monsoon near Japan, and northern Japan is more likely to run warm in the first half of winter. - **25 August three-month outlook**: a 50% chance that Hokkaido's mean temperature for November will be above normal. The Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk sides will still see relatively many cloudy, snowy or rainy days. On the Pacific side, the chances of precipitation being "near normal" (*heinen-nami*) and "above normal" are 40% each. This outlook did not say whether total November snowfall will be above or below normal. - **18 September cold-season outlook (December–February)**: JMA says cold air will have little influence near Japan. Hokkaido's winter temperature: "near or above normal" (20% below, 40% near normal, 40% above). Snowfall on Hokkaido's Sea of Japan side: "near or below normal" (40% below, 40% near normal, 20% above). - **20 October three-month outlook (November–January)**: a 50% chance of above-normal temperatures in Hokkaido (20% below, 30% near normal). Snowfall on the Sea of Japan side: "near or below normal" (40% below, 40% near normal, 20% above). The Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk sides are likely to be affected by low-pressure systems, with precipitation "near or above normal". JMA also says the September cold-season outlook stands unchanged. Does that mean a low-snow season for Hokkaido? JMA's September and October outlooks both put snowfall on the Sea of Japan side at near or below normal, with only a 20% chance of above normal. That is a probability; it does not mean there will definitely be little snow. The past statistics in the August data show that neither northern Japan's mean temperature across the whole winter nor precipitation on the Sea of Japan side has a clear lean in one direction. The items the school account flagged as worth watching are the rain–snow line at low elevations, the base at the start of the season, and wet snow and refreezing after warm spells. Up high, a strong enough cold outbreak can also turn the mountains white quickly. ## Early-season conditions card | Item | Detail | |---|---| | Observation date and place | 22 November 2025, Sapporo Kokusai | | Opening date this season | UNKNOWN; it differs every year — check the [resort's official site](https://www.sapporo-kokusai.jp/) | | Temperature | About 0 °C lower down (that day) | | Snow | Ice crust at the top; wet snow lower down | | Crowds | Not many people that day | | Access | UNKNOWN | This card records last year's first day of the season; it does not represent this year. For the resort's basic data, see the [Sapporo Kokusai resort page](/resorts/kokusai/) (in Chinese). For why Hokkaido powder is the way it is, see [The Science of Powder, Part 1](/en/blog/powder-science-01-why-hokkaido/) and [Part 3](/en/blog/powder-science-03-dryness/). ## Who this post is not for - Anyone who wants to know exactly how much snow there will be this December: this post has no reliable figure, and it will not invent one. - Anyone who wants to practise carving early in the season: 西西's observation that day was that carving on ice crust is hard. The previous part covered [why powder has no brakes](/en/blog/powder-riding-01-no-brakes-speed-and-turn-shape/); the next one looks at [how to read snow forecasts](/en/blog/powder-riding-03-reading-powder-forecasts/).The ice crust up top only makes riding hard work and falls painful. The real danger is lower down.
西西
Facts checked: 10 November 2026. The ice-crust and wet-snow observations come from 西西's Threads posts of 22 November 2025 and 西西's teaching notes. The JMA material comes from the school's Threads posts of 28 and 30 August 2026, and from JMA's website: the cold-season outlook of 18 September 2026 and the three-month outlook of 20 October 2026 (checked 11 November 2026). For the original data, JMA's own announcements take precedence. For snow conditions and open terrain, the resort's announcement on the day takes precedence.
## FAQ ### Can you ski or snowboard in Hokkaido in late November? It depends on whether the resort is open. 西西's first day of the season was at Sapporo Kokusai on 22 November 2025; the lower runs were closed that day, and boards had to be carried down on the gondola. For this season's opening dates, check each resort's official site. ### What is early-season snow like? On 西西's first day at Sapporo Kokusai, two kinds. At the top, big day–night temperature swings melt the surface into a thin water film by day that freezes at night into a hard ice crust. Lower down, at about 0 °C, the snow was wet and the nose sank the moment it was pressed. One day's observation. ### Where are early-season injuries most likely? 西西's observation: lower down, not up high. The typical injury, 西西 says, is the board catching in the snow and the rider getting wrenched around. 西西 also says there is almost no good answer to this snow — you can only ride with a light touch. ### Will Hokkaido get less snow this winter? JMA's 18 September cold-season outlook (Dec–Feb) and 20 October three-month outlook (Nov–Jan) both put snowfall on Hokkaido's Sea of Japan side at near or below normal: 40% below, 40% near normal, 20% above. Both lean warm on temperature. These are probabilities, not a promise of little snow. ## Sources - https://www.threads.com/@ryokan_ijuin/post/DRWMu1UgALJ - https://www.threads.com/@ryokan_ijuin/post/DRWWRLvgNOQ - https://www.threads.com/@yukikaze_outdoor/post/DcptnQdjiIP - https://www.threads.com/@yukikaze_outdoor/post/DckeTAREgvY - https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpd/longfcst/kaisetsu/?term=P6M®ion=010100 - https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpd/longfcst/kaisetsu/?term=P3M®ion=010100